UNFCCC TIMELINE
What is happening in Paris this December?
The governments of more than 190 nations will gather in Paris to discuss a possible new global agreement on climate change, aimed at reducing global greenhouse gas emissions and thus avoiding the threat of dangerous climate change.
Why now?
Current commitments on greenhouse gas emissions run out in 2020, so at Paris governments are expected to produce an agreement on what happens for the decade after that at least, and potentially beyond.
Why is this important?
Scientists have warned that if greenhouse gas emissions continue to rise, we will pass the threshold beyond which global warming becomes catastrophic and irreversible. That threshold is estimated as a temperature rise of 2C above pre-industrial levels, and on current emissions trajectories we are heading for a rise of about 5C.
What progress have we seen on a global agreement?
In 1992, governments met in Rio de Janeiro and forged the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change. That agreement, still in force, bound governments to take action to avoid dangerous climate change, but did not specify what actions. Over the following five years, governments wrangled over what each should do, and what should be the role of developed countries versus poorer nations.
Those years of argument produced, in 1997, the Kyoto protocol. That pact required worldwide cuts in emissions of about 5%, compared with 1990 levels, by 2012, and each developed country was allotted a target on emissions reductions. But developing countries, including China, South Korea, Mexico and other rapidly emerging economies, were given no targets and allowed to increase their emissions at will.
Legally, the protocol could not come into force until countries representing 55% of global emissions had ratified it. With the US – then the world’s biggest emitter – on the outside, that was not going to happen.
So for most of the following decade, the Kyoto protocol remained in abeyance and global climate change negotiations ground to a near-halt. But in late 2004, Russia decided to pass the treaty and the protocol finally came into force.
Those years of argument produced, in 1997, the Kyoto protocol. That pact required worldwide cuts in emissions of about 5%, compared with 1990 levels, by 2012, and each developed country was allotted a target on emissions reductions. But developing countries, including China, South Korea, Mexico and other rapidly emerging economies, were given no targets and allowed to increase their emissions at will.
Legally, the protocol could not come into force until countries representing 55% of global emissions had ratified it. With the US – then the world’s biggest emitter – on the outside, that was not going to happen.
So for most of the following decade, the Kyoto protocol remained in abeyance and global climate change negotiations ground to a near-halt. But in late 2004, Russia decided to pass the treaty and the protocol finally came into force.
So we had a global agreement?
Not quite. The US remained firmly outside Kyoto, so although the UN negotiations carried on year after year, the US negotiators were often in different rooms from the rest of the world.
What happened next?
The Copenhagen conference of 2009.
What happened at Copenhagen?
All of the world’s developed countries and the biggest developing countries agreed for the first time to limits on their greenhouse gas emissions. This was a landmark, as it meant the world’s biggest emitters were united towards a single goal.
The emissions reductions agreed on were still not enough to meet scientific advice
What didn’t happen was a fully articulated and legally binding treaty.
The emissions reductions agreed on were still not enough to meet scientific advice
What didn’t happen was a fully articulated and legally binding treaty.
What is likely to be agreed in Paris?
Already few countries declared their emission cuts. (India did not)
The EU will cut its emissions by 40%, compared with 1990 levels, by 2030.
The US will cut its emissions by 26% to 28%, compared with 2005 levels, by 2025
China will agree that its emissions will peak by 2030.
But some countries, most notably India, have not yet done so.
The EU will cut its emissions by 40%, compared with 1990 levels, by 2030.
The US will cut its emissions by 26% to 28%, compared with 2005 levels, by 2025
China will agree that its emissions will peak by 2030.
But some countries, most notably India, have not yet done so.
After Paris talks: Will cover this after the talks in December 2015
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